Polling · Updated 5 July 2026
Latest UK polls: who would win an election today?
The polling average, what first past the post might do with it — and, unlike every other poll tracker, what the leaders' actual policies would mean for your money.
The average (early July 2026)
| Party | Vote share | Change vs 2024 result |
|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | ~26% | +12 |
| Labour | ~21% | −13 |
| Conservatives | ~19% | −5 |
| Greens | ~13% | +6 |
| Liberal Democrats | ~12% | ±0 |
Rounded multi-poll averages (PollCheck 7-poll average, YouGov and Ipsos trackers, early July 2026). Individual polls vary by ±3 points; treat all of this as a snapshot, not a prediction.
What these numbers would actually produce
Nobody is near the ~40% that historically delivered majorities, so first past the post enters uncharted territory: five parties between 12% and 26% means seat projections are wildly sensitive to geography, and a hung parliament is the central scenario. Reform leads in most English regions outside London; Labour holds up in the capital and Scotland.
The part other trackers skip: what the leaders would do
- If Reform's lead holds: the live questions become the £20,000 allowance (≈£1,486/yr for most workers), scrapping net zero and mass deportations — and whether the money adds up.
- If it's a hung parliament: the smaller parties' prices matter — care and electoral reform, or wealth taxes.
- Whoever governs: see the full effect on your own finances with the all-party impact calculator.