Autumn Budget 2026: John Healey's first, and what it could mean for your money

What's already locked in (from the November 2025 Budget)

• Income tax and NI thresholds stay frozen to 2030/31. Every pay rise drags more of your salary into tax — see fiscal drag and the pay rise calculator.
• Taxes on unearned income are rising in stages: dividend rates rose 2 points in April 2026 (10.75%/35.75%); savings-interest and rental-income rates rise 2 points in April 2027 (property gets its own 22/42/47% bands).
• The "mansion tax" arrives April 2028 — the High Value Council Tax Surcharge of £2,500–£7,500/yr on English homes over £2 million. Explainer and calculator →
• Electric vehicles get a per-mile charge from April 2028 (~3p/mile) under the Taxation (Energy and Vehicles) Bill. Explainer →
• Salary-sacrifice NI relief is capped at £2,000/yr from April 2029 — see salary sacrifice.
• The cash-ISA allowance drops to £12,000 (under-65s) from April 2027; the overall £20,000 ISA limit is unchanged.
• The triple lock continues — September 2026 figures set the April 2027 state pension rise. Your pension tax →
• The two-child benefit limit is being scrapped — up to ~£3,650 per affected child (2026/27 rates). Calculator →

The £22bn problem

The single fact shaping this Budget: the new government's spending commitments run ahead of forecast revenue by somewhere in the region of £22 billion, on City analysts' estimates. Burnham has committed to the existing borrowing rules, which leaves tax as the adjustment mechanism, and he has already prepared the ground by saying he may ask people to pay "a little more".

He has also spent money in his first week rather than saved it — the electricity VAT cut costs about £850m this year (funded by cancelling Digital ID) and the £2 bus fare cap from January adds more. Both expire or need renewing inside the forecast period, so they become Budget decisions in their own right.

Tax as a share of GDP is already forecast to reach about 37%, the highest since 1948. That is the backdrop against which any rise gets argued.

What's changed since July

• New PM, new Chancellor. Keir Starmer resigned on 22 June; Andy Burnham took office on 20 July and appointed John Healey to the Treasury — a surprise pick with Treasury experience from the Blair and Brown years but no distinct economic doctrine, which suggests a Budget written in No.10 as much as in the Treasury.
• The first measure is a giveaway, not a raid. VAT on household electricity goes to zero on 1 October for six months. Headline value £45 a year, actual cash nearer £23 — work out yours.
• Property tax is the live question. Burnham's long-backed Proportional Property Tax is now a prime-ministerial idea rather than a mayoral one. The Centre for London has already warned a £600,000 London home would pay about £812 a year more, with the capital carrying roughly £7.5bn of the cost.
• Welfare lands on the Budget's doorstep. The Timms Review of PIP published its interim report on 9 July ("PIP is not working") and reports to ministers in the autumn — any savings or redesign would likely be scored at this Budget.
• The boldest tax pitch yet arrived. UCL's Prosperity 2030 blueprint (9 July) urges replacing council tax and stamp duty with a 1% property tax and merging five taxes into one "National Contribution" — think-tank ambition, not policy, but its authors include an adviser to the incoming PM.
• Energy levies came off bills on 1 July — the £150 package from last year's Budget is now fully in force. Check your bill →

What to watch for

Budgets are guessing games until the speech. These are the candidates being actively discussed by analysts since the handover, roughly in order of how often they come up:

• Capital gains tax. The most-cited option — higher rates, or fuller alignment with income tax. Politically easier than touching the big three, and Burnham's side of the party has long argued for it. CGT calculator →
• Property taxation. Whether the Proportional Property Tax gets a consultation, or whether the Treasury reaches for the smaller, already-legislated mansion tax surcharge instead. Compare your position with the council tax calculator.
• The personal allowance. Burnham has said the frozen allowance is one of the issues constituents raise most. Unfreezing early is expensive, so watch for a targeted gesture at the bottom rather than a general unfreeze — the freeze itself raises money every year through fiscal drag.
• Employer National Insurance. Speculation about partially reversing the April 2025 increase, which business has campaigned against since it landed.
• Inheritance tax reliefs. Whether the April 2026 agricultural and business property relief cap gets revisited after a year of sustained pressure. IHT calculator →
• Whether the electricity VAT cut is extended past 31 March 2027. Letting it lapse means bills rise on 1 April; extending it costs roughly £1.7bn for a full year.
• Duties. Fuel duty has been "temporarily" cut since 2011 — every Budget it's a live question.

We don't speculate beyond what's publicly discussed — when a measure is confirmed, it appears here with a calculator.

See where you stand before the Budget

• Take-home pay calculator — your baseline under today's rules.
• Income tax calculator — including Scottish bands.
• The crossover salaries — how each party's plan compares at your income.